Increase in Crude Oil consumption amid the economic buoyancy

a new report on "Report on Crude Oil Industry" which gives quantitative and qualitative analysis on Crude Oil Industry.

Online PR News – 19-November-2010 – – Report on Crude Oil Industry

Last three to four years have been eventful for global oil industry. Global oil demand managed to increase marginally over the last two years, as the slump in oil demand from OECD countries were outwitted by the increase in consumption in the Asia-Pacific region. Supply crashed massively in the first-half of 2009 in response to the global economic slowdown coupled with OPEC production cuts, but recovered to the pre-recession levels in second-half of 2009. This period was also marked with massive cancellation/deferral of new oil projects, putting at least 6.2 mbpd of new upstream capacity at risk. Global crude oil prices showed unprecedented volatility by crashing below $35 per barrel in Feb-2009 from its historic high of $147 per barrel in July-2008, and progressively recovering again at the current levels of about $75-80 per barrel. ( )

On the other hand, India continued to report a sharp increase in crude oil consumption amid the economic buoyancy. However, growth of the crude oil consumption (4-year CAGR of 6.0 per cent) has not been able to keep pace with growth in GDP (4-year CAGR of 8.8 per cent) primarily due to rising crude prices and increased contribution of the service sector in the GDP. About 80 per cent of this incremental demand is satisfied through imported crude oil amid the declining domestic production from matured fields. The rising import along with stabilizing crude prices have led to a sharp run-up in India’s oil import bill, more than 60 per cent of which can be attributed to the increase in oil prices.

It has developed an Oil Intensity Model to forecast global oil demand over the next two years. The model involves quantitative and qualitative judgment on oil intensities of over 70 countries and has utilized GDP forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). On the supply side, It has used a combination of the decline rate methodology and its Oil Fields Database comprising over 170 new fields that are expected to come on-stream in the next two years to forecast global oil supply.

It expects global crude oil demand to rebound on the back of economic revival and lack of scope for any substitution/efficiency gain through 2010-12. However, the demand centres are expected to shift to parts of emerging economies. On the supply side, we expect OPEC spare capacity to remain high despite surging demand primarily due to addition of significant new oil production capacity. Our outlook on prices is formulated based on our supply and demand forecasts. We expect that any movement in oil prices to be more reflective of demand side factors in next 2-3 years, post which the price reactions would be more focused on supply side factors.

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