New built properties increase by 8.9% by the beginning of 2010
Online PR News – 11-June-2010 – – The surplus supply of newly built properties on the market waiting for a buyer rose by 8.9% to 114,147 by the end of in 2009 in Andalucía, according to the Ministry of Housing. On a national level, the supply of newly built properties on the market stands at 688,044 properties, an overall increase of 12%.
By province in Andalucía, Almería saw the largest increase in new builds with respect to 2008 with a 23,4% increase (22,517 unsold properties), which equates to about 3% of the national total. Seville has seen a 6.4% increase (18,217 new properties) and Cadiz saw a 11.8% (17,005 new properties) increase. Both Granada (0.6% increase to 11,491) and Cordoba (1.9% increase to 8,115) saw only slight increase.
Finally the province of Malaga has 22,666 new properties currently on the market. A 7.5% increase from 2008.
So what can this tell us about the property market?
Looking at the new property sales for Andalucía in 2009 it would take approximately 28 months to digest the existing stock of new properties. This is based on 48,967 new properties that were sold and went to title deeds in 2009, approximately 4081 sales a month on mean average. Interestingly, using the median figure (3980) only a month is added to this figure bringing the figure to 29 months.
Now though, if we were to look at the new sales figures for the first 3 months of 2010 to give us a guide for the coming year, no clear trend can be seen. Year on year January, February and March have produced very different results. But to save myself (and you) a lot of waffling, over the 3 months 12% fewer new builds have gone to title deeds in the first quarter of 2010 than in 2009. If this is a trend for the future and we of course make the assumption that there will not be a general improvement in the new build market, then it will take approximately 32 months or just over 2 and a half years to digest the remaining stock.
Now looking more specifically at Malaga and by default the Costa del Sol property, based on 2009 statistics, it would take just under 22 month to absorb the existing stock with an average of 1047 property sales per month. Again similar to the Andalucía information, using a median average of 983 properties per month in Malaga, the forecast is only increased by a month to 23 months.
Using the same process we did above for Andalucía, it can been seen that approximately 23.7% (9681 properties) fewer new builds have been sold in the first 3 month of this year compared to 2009. If this is a trend that will continue, it could take the province of Malaga up to 28 months to digest the stock of new properties currently on the market.
As I mentioned earlier these figures do not take into account any new properties that will be coming onto the market over the following years and months. Nor can the figures for the first 3 months of this year be used as a benchmark for the remainder of 2010 and beyond. And as always price and location greatly determine the likelihood of a property selling, whether a resale or a new build. With this in mind I am sure quite a few of these new builds will be languishing on the market for years to come.