Croatia Tourism Report Q3 2010

In regards to the number of foreign tourist arrivals, 2008 and 2009 were uninspiring years.

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Tourism Overview

In regards to the number of foreign tourist arrivals, 2008 and 2009 were uninspiring years. After a weakening in foreign arrivals growth in 2008 of just 1% year-on-year (y-o-y), the situation deteriorated in 2009 with negative annual growth of 1% to less than 9.3mn visitors. Domestic tourism fared far worse however, with tourist numbers down by 13% compared with 2008. Due to the dominance of foreign visitors, overall tourism numbers fell by a more modest 3% y-o-y in 2009. Among the top source markets, Germany, Italy, Austria and Poland all provided positive growth in the number of visitors in all accommodation establishments, while arrivals from Slovenia, the Czech Republic, France and the UK fell. Data for January 2010 show foreign tourist arrivals were down by 24% y-o-y, with domestic tourist numbers falling by 14%. Combined foreign and domestic tourist arrivals fell by nearly 19% y-o-y.


After a weak performance in the hospitality sector in 2008, the outturn in 2009 was poor, with a slight fall of 1% y-o-y in the total number of tourist nights, to nearly 56.3mn. The number of foreign tourist nights (90% of the total) declined marginally to 50.5mn, with the average number of nights per tourist at 5.4 nights. The number of domestic tourist nights fell by 10% y-o-y to about 5.8mn. Only two key foreign source markets, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, showed slight falls y-o-y in tourist nights. Total tourist nights fell by over 16% y-o-y in January 2010, with the number of foreign and domestic nights falling by 24% and 10% y-o-y respectively.

Industry Forecast Scenario

We have revised up our forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2010 to positive growth of 3% y-o-y, up from 1% growth in our previous report. Underlying this forecast is mild economic recovery in major source markets, with the eurozone tentatively emerging from recession in 2010 and growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.8% in 2011. Also, we believe the Croatian kuna’s relative stability against the euro over the next few years will help support the competitiveness of the tourism sector for foreign visitors from the eurozone.

Air Passenger Traffic

Indicative of a weaker tourism year, international passenger air traffic on Croatian carriers was down by 12% y-o-y in 2009. At Zagreb Airport, the main international airport in Croatia and the primary hub for the national flag carrier Croatia Airlines, total passenger numbers fell by 6% y-o-y to under 2.1mn. During the first two months of 2010, passenger traffic at the airport remained poor, down by 9% y-o-y.

Adris Group

Data for the domestic hospitality operator Adris Group for the first nine months of 2009 show its total income reached HRK2.58bn (US$520mn), unchanged compared with 9M08. Operating profit amounted to HRK675mn (US$136mn), a fall of nearly 5% y-o-y. Over the same period, tourism operations recorded a small 1% y-o-y drop in overnight stays.

Table of Content

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Croatia Tourism SWOT
Croatia Political SWOT
Croatia Economic SWOT
Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Accommodation Data, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2014
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014 (‘000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Table: Key Players In The Croatian Hotel Industry, 2008
Accommodation Developments
Business Environment Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Croatia’s Business Environment
Table: Croatia’s Annual FDI Inflows, 2000-2006
Table: Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asian FDI Inflows, 2005-2006
BMI’s Security Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Croatia’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Central And Eastern Europe Security Overview
Currency Forecast
Table: BMI’s Croatia Currency Forecast
Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Company Profiles
Adris Group
Croatia Airlines
Cubus Lux
Liburnia Riviera Hoteli
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components

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