After a difficult 2009, when we estimate that Japanâ€™s mining industry shrank by some 17.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in real terms, we believe that the stage is set for steady recovery over our newly-extended forecast to 2014.
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After a difficult 2009, when we estimate that Japanâ€™s mining industry shrank by some 17.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in real terms, we believe that the stage is set for steady recovery over our newly-extended forecast to 2014. That said, with Japanâ€™s domestic mineral reserves having been largely exhausted, its contribution to GDP will remain below 0.1% over our forecast period.
Against this backdrop, it is clear that Japan is a major player in the global mining industry more as a consumer and processor of raw materials as opposed to a producer. Japan remains heavily dependent on imports for raw materials and its mining companies continue to look abroad for new overseas exploration or production projects.
For 2010, BMI has made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as using local statistics agencies and associations, we now also draw on the expertise of the UNâ€™s Industrial Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary econometric model. Human intervention also plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining forecasting; experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensure that we can spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.
With the majority of Japanâ€™s domestic mines having been exhausted, the country does not retain any significant mining production capacity, with the exception of the Hishikari gold mine. However, the country does export a great deal of finished products and is a key refiner of metals for the region.
After a difficult 2009, BMI believes the stage is set for a steady recovery in Japanâ€™s mining industry over our newly extended forecast period to 2014. Our economists believe that growth in real terms can average just over 5% over the coming five years. However, much of this growth merely reflects a rebound from the sharp falls seen in 2008 and 2009. In addition, mining remains a very small part of the wider Japanese economy. We see miningâ€™s contribution to GDP remaining below the 0.1% mark across our forecast period.
Japan Political SWOT
Japan Economic SWOT
Global Mining Outlook
Table: Rio Tintoâ€™s Capital And Major Evaluation Projects For 2010
Risks To Outlook
Industry Trends And Developments
Mining Business Environment
Asia Pacific Overview
Table: Asia Pacific Mining Business Environment Ratings
Japanâ€™s Mining Business Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Commodities Forecast â€“ Copper
Table: BMIâ€™s Copper Forecasts
Table: Copper Data And Forecasts, 2005-2011
Commodities Forecast â€“ Aluminium
Table: BMIâ€™s Aluminium Forecasts
Table: Aluminium Data And Forecasts, 2005-2011
Commodities Forecast â€“ Lead
Table: BMIâ€™s Lead Forecast
Table: Lead Data And Forecasts, 2005-2011
Japanâ€™s Mining Forecasts
Table: Japanâ€™s Mining Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014
Mitsubishi Materials Corp
Nippon Mining Holdings Ltd (to become JX Holdings)
Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
Table: Developed Statesâ€™ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Table: Emerging Marketsâ€™ Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
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