US and Brazil face historic contraction, China set for recovery
06/02/2020

The CEIC Leading Indicator suggests that the scale of the economic downturn will be particularly severe for the United States and Brazil.

Online PR News – 02-June-2020 – London, UK – The CEIC Leading Indicator (CLI) is a newly launched proprietary dataset designed by CEIC Insights to precede the development of major macroeconomic indicators and predict the turning points of the economic cycle for key markets.

According to our model, the scale of the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and the worldwide lockdown has already reached (and for some countries far exceeded) that which followed the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008. Our data shows that the United States, the Euro Area and Brazil will suffer the deepest contraction among the eight countries/regions covered by the indicator. The damage on their real economies is predicted to be much higher compared to the 2008-2009 recession.

In contrast, the decline in the Asian countries covered by the CEIC Leading Indicator is much less severe. In Japan, India and Indonesia, even though the indicator dropped substantially in March and April, the decline was considerably softer. Moreover, the magnitude of the economic contraction has so far not exceeded the one in the 2008-2009 recession, or the one during the Asian currency crisis in 1997. In China, even though the indicator decreased sharply following the lockdown after the Spring Festival, it reached a trough in February and improved
substantially in March and April.

Introducing the newly launched CEIC Leading Indicator

An early warning system for key economies, the CEIC Leading Indicator is calculated by aggregating and weighting selected leading indicators covering various important sectors of the economy, such as financial markets, the monetary sector, labour market, trade and industry. It is developed through a proprietary CEIC methodology and employs data from the CEIC database. The CEIC Leading Indicator currently covers eight regions – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Euro Area, Japan and the United States.

Indicators are updated twice a month, with the first update being a flash version of the indicator (using the earliest available components but no less than 65% of the information). After all the components are available, the complete series is updated.

Access to the CEIC Leading Indicator is free upon registration: https://cli.ceicdata.com/